Archive for August, 2008

Winning Without a Leadoff Hitter

Friday, August 29th, 2008

We’ve been over the Rickie Weeks debate many times this season.

It still amazes me that there are people out there quick to defend the

guy.It also amazes me that they believe they have proof that he has

been successful.

Let me start out by saying that our current record does NOT mean that

everyone in the lineup has been successful. There is always room for

improvement. -and in this case, there is substantial room.

In order to properly access where Weeks stands among all other leadof

hitters in the NL, I crunched some numbers. Afterall, it’s not fair to just SAY he’s the worst without numbers to back it up.

First, I took your basic offensive stats: doubles, homers, RBIs, stolen bases, batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage of all NL leadoff hitters (one from each of the 16 NL teams). I then divided those numbers by the players number of At Bats to get an average for each stat. This allowed me to rank each of the 16 players in each category. Those ranks look like this –>

From these rankings, we can then rank

the NL leadoff hitters one though sixteen.

Weeks ended up being the 11th best

leadoff hitter in the NL. -or the 6th worst

leadoff hitter in the NL - depending on

how you look at it.

Of course it’s my opinion that Weeks’

ranking in runs scored is helped along

greatly by the lineup behind him.

To back that up, you don’t have to look

much further than the ranks posted here.

Weeks is 11th in the league among leadoff

hitters in on-base percentage, yet he’s 2nd

in runs scored. How could that be? There

are only so many ways a guy gets around

the bases. We can start by looking at his

rank in doubles (12th). That tells us he’s

not starting out in scoring position. Most

of his hits are singles, typical of a leadoff

guy.

Now check out stolen bases (9th).

Considering #1 ranked Reyes has 26 more

stolen bases than Weeks (more than double

Weeks’ total), it’s safe to say Weeks isn’t doing much in that category to help his runs scored ranking. Not to mention, I doubt that anyone who’s watched Brewer games this year can honestly say Weeks is a good baserunner.

So, what else is there? -the lineup behind him of course.

If you take Weeks out of the lineup and plug in someone else with a higher OBP, then we score more runs - and win more games. It’s really common sense. Yet people defend Weeks by saying, “well, he scores runs.” If you don’t even figure in runs scored into the ranking, Weeks drops down to 13th out of 16 NL leadoff hitters.

Another defense for Weeks is that he has potential. While I don’t argue that fact, I wonder why we are still developing Weeks at the major league level while trying to make a playoff run at the same time. - Especially after Nedly And Melvin have both been quoted as saying they no longer do this.

Even so, you’d expect Weeks to show some type of improvement, even at this level, but for the most part, he has regressed.

His batting average (.226 to date) is at an all-time low after hitting .279 in 2006 and .235 last season. That isn’t progress.

His power numbers per AB (1 HR per 40 AB) are much worse than last season (1 HR per 25 AB). Another step in the wrong direction. He walks less frequently than just a season ago (1 walk per 7 AB this year, 1 walk per 5 AB last year). His strikeout rate is up as well to his career worst (1 SO per 4 AB). Even his on-base percentage, key for a leadoff hitter, is just .001 higher than his career low back in 2005 (.333).

If he isn’t making progress and developing here in the majors, why not send him to AAA? People will argue that we have no better options (even though Durham has better numbers across the board), but that isn’t even the issue at this point. If we knew going into the trade deadline that second base was our week spot, why not replace Weeks altogether? The Reds are out of the race and were sitting on Brandon Phillips who will be a free agent at the end of the season. What was the cost for a player like that? His OBP is rather low this season, but the Stripped-down Reds have been asking him to be their cleanup hitter and run-producer this season (.263 BA, 23 HR, 76 RBI). With a better SO rate than Weeks, I have no doubt his OBP would go up hitting in front of Hardy, Braun, Fielder, and Hart.

Of course that’s just one option. It’s likely a Durham and Counsell combination at second base would have been able to top Weeks in just about every offensive category.

Check out some of these splits Weeks has put up this season:

Runners in scoring position: .217 BA, .315 OBP, .359 SLG

Men on base: .203 BA, .300 OBP, .327 SLG

Bases loaded: .231 BA, .231 OBP, .385 SLG

1st time facing SP: .222 BA, .327 OBP, .367 SLG

2nd time facing SP: .258 BA, .317 OBP, .344 SLG

3rd time facing SP: .194 BA, .369 OBP, .366 SLG

vs RP: .229 BA, .322 OBP, .412 SLG

Leading off game: .230 BA, .337 OBP, .379 SLG

Leading off inning: .220 BA, .325 OBP, .387 SLG

vs Power pitchers: .263 BA, .397 OBP, .458 SLG

vs Finesse pitchers: .179 BA, .272 OBP, .291 SLG (this backs up my theory that he can’t hit breaking balls)

At Miller Park: .202 BA, .313 OBP, .306 SLG

I guess the moral of the story here is that it’s possible to win games and even make the playoffs without a decent leadoff hitter, but imagine where we’d be today if we DID have one.

Goat Growing Fast

Sunday, August 17th, 2008

I have to admit, that with a home-based business starting up, my attention has been split. Luckily for me, the Brewers haven’t lost games at a rate like they have in the past. I’ve been able keep up with the polls and blog updates though it hasn’t always been easy.

I went back and checked today and found that we’ve had over 1300 votes for Goat so far this season.  Traffic is up, even considering the long breaks between losses. -which, believe me, I consider a good thing. Although we focus on losses here, we still appreciate the wins. I’ve been searching for features to add to the site which would bring visitors win OR lose. The addition of Brewfn65’s  Hero of the Game blog will help in that regard.

The cartoons have also helped.

Between paintings I’m doing for others, I plan on doing cartoons for the rest of the Brewers’ TV crew, Bill, Brian, Jeff, etc and emailing them to the booth. Hopefully this will trigger some new visitors. I also thought it would be some good publicity to go to another game with a goat sign. Maybe a sign with a player’s cartoon and a mention of goatofthegame. If we make it on TV, we’d get a boost in traffic I’m sure.

Since I am way up in Oshkosh and not sure when I’ll get back to Milwaukee to take in another game, that seems like a great homework assignment for a regular here. If you’re willing to take the sign challenge on, Email me and let me know when you’re going. I can make up a sign and send it your way.

We’ll have to think up a prize for anyone who holds up a goat sign and makes it onto the FSN broadcast. Any ideas out there?

Free personalized cartoon? Free Goat T-Shirt?

If we can turn a profit with increased traffic and ad placement, I’m planning on returning the money to the website. One way to do that is to give out Goat T-shirts as contest prizes (as well as other prizes such as free Brewer tickets).

One other homework assignment for the fans is to send me ideas on winter content. With the off-season soming up fast, we’ll need something to pass the time until spring training.

I want to continue evolving goatofthegame to Brewer fans’ requests. So far, the Standings page, the cartoons page, and the personalized cartoon option were all created on the suggestion of you guys.  Just keep your ideas rolling in!

Bill Hall

Sunday, August 17th, 2008

Well, this would normally be the hero’s of the week blog but my

account and all of my posts got deleted at the message board so

I decided to write something else instead.

In my opinion, Bill Hall is getting screwed over by the Brewers.

In 2006 he is team MVP with 35 homeruns. So, how do the Brewers

reward him? They move him to center field. Naturally, learning a new

position causes Bill Hall underachieve offensively and he has a down year.

2008 rolls around and just as he’s getting settled into Center field he gets

moved back to the infield. Again, it’s no big surprise that he struggles at the

beginning of the year. Now as he’s starting to pick it up, he gets benched in

favor of Craig Counsell. I mean are you kidding me? Craig Counsell??

I could understand Russell Branyan playing when he was healthy, but that was a platoon and Branyan was on fire so it made sense. This isn’t even a platoon! They just flat out benched Bill Hall. It makes me wonder if he’s not hurt or something.

Anyways, I dont think it is right that the Milwaukee Brewers have basically destroyed Bill Hall’s career. Leave me some comments on what you guys think.

This Week’s Heroes, 8/3 - 8/9

Sunday, August 10th, 2008

A good week, 4-2 overall with a series win vs. Cincinnati and a couple of wins vs. the nats so here are your heros as voted on by the fans at the brewers message board:

Tuesday 8/5 @ Cincinnati:  HOG goes to Dave Bush who put togeather a solid start.  Runner-up goes to Corey Hart.  Honerable Mention goes to Jim Skaalen for all-around good day offensivly.

Wednesday 8/6 @ Cincinnati:  HOG goes to Rickie Weeks who had 4 hits.  Runner-up goes to Mike Cameron who also had a couple of hits.

Friday 8/8 vs. Washington:  HOG goes to CC Sabathia who pitched a complete game shutout and really wasn’t in any real trouble the entire game.

Saturday 8/9 vs. Washington:  HOG goes to Ben Sheets who pitched a complete game Shutout, back to back games for the crew, he scattered 5 hits and didn’t walk anyone.

This week’s heroes; 7/27 - 8/2

Sunday, August 3rd, 2008

yeesh, not a good week for Milwaukee, they lose the last game of the Houston series and then get swept at home vs. the Cubs.  Overall the Brewers go 2-5 this week and here are the heroes:

Friday 8/1:  Hero of the game goes to Jeff Suppan who pitched 7 innings scoreless.  Runner-up goes to Mike Cameron who went 1-3 with a 2-run homerun and he reached base twice.  Congratulations!

Saturday 8/2:  Prince Fielder is the Hero with 2 homeruns and a total of 3 RBI’s.  Runner-up goes to CC Sabathia who pitched 8 1/3 IP giving up only 2 ER’s to earn the Win.