Winning Without a Leadoff Hitter
Friday, August 29th, 2008We’ve been over the Rickie Weeks debate many times this season.
It still amazes me that there are people out there quick to defend the
guy.It also amazes me that they believe they have proof that he has
been successful.
Let me start out by saying that our current record does NOT mean that
everyone in the lineup has been successful. There is always room for
improvement. -and in this case, there is substantial room.
In order to properly access where Weeks stands among all other leadof
hitters in the NL, I crunched some numbers. Afterall, it’s not fair to just SAY he’s the worst without numbers to back it up.
First, I took your basic offensive stats: doubles, homers, RBIs, stolen bases, batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage of all NL leadoff hitters (one from each of the 16 NL teams). I then divided those numbers by the players number of At Bats to get an average for each stat. This allowed me to rank each of the 16 players in each category. Those ranks look like this –>
From these rankings, we can then rank
the NL leadoff hitters one though sixteen.
Weeks ended up being the 11th best
leadoff hitter in the NL. -or the 6th worst
leadoff hitter in the NL - depending on
how you look at it.
Of course it’s my opinion that Weeks’
ranking in runs scored is helped along
greatly by the lineup behind him.
To back that up, you don’t have to look
much further than the ranks posted here.
Weeks is 11th in the league among leadoff
hitters in on-base percentage, yet he’s 2nd
in runs scored. How could that be? There
are only so many ways a guy gets around
the bases. We can start by looking at his
rank in doubles (12th). That tells us he’s
not starting out in scoring position. Most
of his hits are singles, typical of a leadoff
guy.
Now check out stolen bases (9th).
Considering #1 ranked Reyes has 26 more
stolen bases than Weeks (more than double
Weeks’ total), it’s safe to say Weeks isn’t doing much in that category to help his runs scored ranking. Not to mention, I doubt that anyone who’s watched Brewer games this year can honestly say Weeks is a good baserunner.
So, what else is there? -the lineup behind him of course.
If you take Weeks out of the lineup and plug in someone else with a higher OBP, then we score more runs - and win more games. It’s really common sense. Yet people defend Weeks by saying, “well, he scores runs.” If you don’t even figure in runs scored into the ranking, Weeks drops down to 13th out of 16 NL leadoff hitters.
Another defense for Weeks is that he has potential. While I don’t argue that fact, I wonder why we are still developing Weeks at the major league level while trying to make a playoff run at the same time. - Especially after Nedly And Melvin have both been quoted as saying they no longer do this.
Even so, you’d expect Weeks to show some type of improvement, even at this level, but for the most part, he has regressed.
His batting average (.226 to date) is at an all-time low after hitting .279 in 2006 and .235 last season. That isn’t progress.
His power numbers per AB (1 HR per 40 AB) are much worse than last season (1 HR per 25 AB). Another step in the wrong direction. He walks less frequently than just a season ago (1 walk per 7 AB this year, 1 walk per 5 AB last year). His strikeout rate is up as well to his career worst (1 SO per 4 AB). Even his on-base percentage, key for a leadoff hitter, is just .001 higher than his career low back in 2005 (.333).
If he isn’t making progress and developing here in the majors, why not send him to AAA? People will argue that we have no better options (even though Durham has better numbers across the board), but that isn’t even the issue at this point. If we knew going into the trade deadline that second base was our week spot, why not replace Weeks altogether? The Reds are out of the race and were sitting on Brandon Phillips who will be a free agent at the end of the season. What was the cost for a player like that? His OBP is rather low this season, but the Stripped-down Reds have been asking him to be their cleanup hitter and run-producer this season (.263 BA, 23 HR, 76 RBI). With a better SO rate than Weeks, I have no doubt his OBP would go up hitting in front of Hardy, Braun, Fielder, and Hart.
Of course that’s just one option. It’s likely a Durham and Counsell combination at second base would have been able to top Weeks in just about every offensive category.
Check out some of these splits Weeks has put up this season:
Runners in scoring position: .217 BA, .315 OBP, .359 SLG
Men on base: .203 BA, .300 OBP, .327 SLG
Bases loaded: .231 BA, .231 OBP, .385 SLG
1st time facing SP: .222 BA, .327 OBP, .367 SLG
2nd time facing SP: .258 BA, .317 OBP, .344 SLG
3rd time facing SP: .194 BA, .369 OBP, .366 SLG
vs RP: .229 BA, .322 OBP, .412 SLG
Leading off game: .230 BA, .337 OBP, .379 SLG
Leading off inning: .220 BA, .325 OBP, .387 SLG
vs Power pitchers: .263 BA, .397 OBP, .458 SLG
vs Finesse pitchers: .179 BA, .272 OBP, .291 SLG (this backs up my theory that he can’t hit breaking balls)
At Miller Park: .202 BA, .313 OBP, .306 SLG
I guess the moral of the story here is that it’s possible to win games and even make the playoffs without a decent leadoff hitter, but imagine where we’d be today if we DID have one.